Behind the Numbers

9/11 suspects and trial venue: another even-up proposition

Tue, 17 Nov 2009 12:00:00 -0500

Like much else in politics today, Friday's decision to put Khalid Sheik Mohammed, the self-proclaimed mastermind of the 9/11 attacks, and several co-conspirators on trial in federal court in New York is apt to satisfy half of Americans, and displease the other half. In a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, 47 percent say suspects accused of involvement in the 9/11 terrorist attacks should be tried in the U.S. federal court system, while as many, 48 percent, say they prefer military tribunals set up for that purpose. .poll454 { width: 454px; padding: 10px 0; margin: 10px 0; border-top: 1px dotted #CCC; border-bottom: 1px dotted #CCC; } .poll454 h3 { font: bold 13px/17px Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; margin: 0 0 10px 0; } .poll454 blockquote { font: 13px/17px Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; } .poll454 p.credit { font: 11px/14px Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; color: #666; margin: 0; } Q. Would you rather have suspects accused of

Sarah Palin by the numbers

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 11:00:00 -0500

The public's take on Sarah Palin remains deeply split along partisan and gender lines, according to the new Washington Post-ABC News poll, and among women, the gap between Democrats and Republicans is even wider. Crosstabs on these questions below. Q. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Sarah Palin? ---Favorable-- -Unfavorable-- NET Strongly NET Strongly All 43 20 52 34 Democrat 21 9 77 57 Independent 45 18 47 32 Republican 76 42 20 6 Men 48 20 46 29 Women 39 20 57 39 Among women: White 45 23 51 37 White/Suburb 50 26 46 33 Democrat 17 8 81 62 Independent 41 16 52 36 Republican 78 49 20 6 Q. If Palin runs for president in 2012, would you definitely vote for her, would you consider voting for her, or would you definitely not vote for her? Definitely Would Definitely would consider would not All

Sarah Palin: new chapter, same challenges

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 08:00:00 -0500

If Sarah Palin's book tour is an opening salvo in a run for the presidency in 2012, she faces a steep uphill climb: a majority of Americans in a new Washington Post-ABC News poll say they would "definitely not vote for her." Most - 60 percent - in the new poll say the former Alaska governor is not qualified to serve as president, and her favorability rating remains stuck well below what it was when she first emerged on the national scene at last year's Republican convention. But she continues to have strident supporters, particularly among the Republican base, lifting her political influence. Overall, 52 percent of those polled say they see Palin in unfavorable terms, but among Republicans, her positive rating soars to 76 percent. Nearly two-thirds of all white evangelical Protestants hold favorable views of her. Put together, a majority of Americans have "strongly" positive or negative views

On eve of execution, Virginians broadly support penalty

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:29:00 -0500

With John Allen Muhammad, the mastermind of the 2002 D.C. sniper attacks, scheduled to be executed tomorrow, Virginia voters are broadly in favor of the death penalty for those convicted of murder, according to new data from a Washington Post poll. Virginia voters favor the death penalty by a better than 2 to 1 margin, with 66 percent supportive of it, 31 percent opposed. And intensity on this issue is with the supporters: 45 percent "strongly" back capital punishment, 18 percent are that solidly opposed. But in Northern Virginia - site of several shootings by Muhammad and Lee Boyd Malvo - a smaller majority of 56 percent backs the death penalty, compared with 71 percent in the rest of the state. Support for capital punishment has dipped since it was a centerpiece issue in the 2005 gubernatorial campaign. Just before that vote, 72 percent of likely voters statewide said they

Scrambling regional patterns in Virginia

Thu, 29 Oct 2009 09:55:00 -0500

Both candidates in this year's Virginia gubernatorial campaign made claims of transformational regional appeal that would defy the state's typical partisan leanings - Republican Robert F. McDonnell touting his Northern Virginia roots and Democrat R. Creigh Deeds dubbing the rural west "Deeds Country." A look at the regional breaks in the latest Washington Post poll side-by-side with historical voting patterns shows McDonnell has done a better job translating his hometown ties into voter appeal. Within Northern Virginia, McDonnell's showing at the moment nears that of George W. Bush in 2004 and 2000, and is about on par with Mark Earley's 2001 gubernatorial tally. But McDonnell has really gained ground in the outer suburbs. There, he has the support of 59 percent of likely voters in the Post poll, better than any top-of-the-ticket Republican this decade. By contrast, comparing Deeds' regional standings to those of past Democrats, his showing could rate

The Obama factor: Virginia edition

Tue, 27 Oct 2009 12:00:01 -0500

Virginia Democrats hope President Obama's campaign stop today in Norfolk will boost Democratic gubernatorial candidate R. Creigh Deeds' standing and improve turnout in the final days of the campaign, but most in a new Washington Post poll say the president will not affect their vote next Tuesday. Seven in 10 in the new poll say Obama is not a factor in their choice. And among those who say they'll take him into account, 14 percent say their vote will be to express support for Obama, 15 percent to indicate opposition to him. The ongoing debate in Washington over health care reform also splits the electorate. A narrow majority (53 percent) opposes the legislation being developed by the Obama administration and Congress - including 44 percent who strongly oppose it - while 43 percent favor it. But Virginians are more evenly split on the necessity of reform: 48 percent say it's

New WaPo Virginia Poll: The Crosstabs

Mon, 26 Oct 2009 17:06:03 -0500

With one week to go before voters in Virginia head to the polls, Republican Robert F. McDonnell has a double-digit lead over Democrat R. Creigh Deeds according to a new Washington Post poll. Here are selected crosstabs from the new poll of 1,206 likely voters. Want others? Tell us in the comments section, and we'll do our best to provide. More results and question wording from the poll can be found here. Q. If the election were being held today and the candidates were Creigh Deeds, the Democrat and Bob McDonnell, the Republican, for whom would you vote? Deeds McDonnell All likely voters 44% 55% Men 39 59 Women 48 50 White 34 64 African American 89 10 Age 18-34 53 46 Age 35-64 43 55 Age 65+ 39 59 Democrats 94 6 Republicans 4 95 Independents 36 61 Liberal Democrats 95 5 Mod/cons. Democrats 93 6 Mod/lib. Republicans 7

Americans: restrict their pay

Wed, 21 Oct 2009 15:13:37 -0500

New federal rules on compensation at companies that accepted bailout money are likely to get a warm public reception: in a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, more than seven in 10 Americans say they support such limits, most of them "strongly" so. The new restrictions, as reported by the New York Times, would target companies receiving the most largess and force severe cuts in executive pay. In the Post-ABC poll, support for federal limits on the salaries and other compensation of top executives at companies receiving emergency federal loans in the past year spans party lines. Nearly eight in 10 Democrats back the idea (79 percent support, 68 percent "strongly), as do seven in 10 independents (56 percent strongly) and more than six in 10 Republicans (62 percent support, 49 percent strongly). .poll454 { width: 454px; padding: 10px 0; margin: 10px 0; border-top: 1px dotted #CCC; border-bottom: 1px dotted #CCC;

Assessing Obama's accomplishments

Tue, 20 Oct 2009 10:40:00 -0500

Amid the mixed public reviews of President Obama's handling of health care and the economy in the new Washington Post-ABC News poll stands one more even split, this one on how much the president has accomplished in his nine months in office. About half (49 percent) say Obama has done "a great deal" or "a good amount" so far, half (50 percent) say "not much" or "little or nothing," with those on the far negative end of the scale (23 percent little to nothing) outweighing those on the most positive side (14 percent great deal). Democrats are most apt to see a full resume, with 73 percent saying Obama's done a great deal or good amount. More than eight in 10 Republicans (84 percent), by contrast, say he hasn't gotten much done. Independents tilt toward the not so much side, 52 percent to 47 percent. Asked in follow-up interviews what

Balancing the government's role on health care

Mon, 19 Oct 2009 17:26:45 -0500

Health care reform's most controversial element - the creation of a government-sponsored insurance plan to compete with private health insurers - centers on the eternal Washington conflict that defines party lines on so many issues: How much of a role should the government play? In the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll, views on the public option and on the level of government involvement in the proposed reforms are sharply divided along party lines. Here's a look at the crosstabs. Q. Would you support or oppose having the government create a new health insurance plan to compete with private health insurance plans? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? -- Support --- --- Oppose --- NET Strongly NET Strongly All 57 36 40 31 Democrat 77 55 19 12 Republican 26 10 69 57 Independent 57 34 42 33 Q. (IF OPPOSE/NO OPINION FOR GOVERNMENT PLAN) What if this government-sponsored

Post-ABC poll: few partisan fissures on Iran nukes

Mon, 19 Oct 2009 12:00:01 -0500

Americans overwhelmingly see Iran's nuclear program as geared toward the development of atomic weaponry, and more than eight in 10 support direct diplomatic talks to try to resolve the situation, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. As negotiators from the United States, France and Russia meet with Iran starting today in Vienna, public opinion in the U.S. is decidedly behind one possible outcome should the talks fail: 78 percent in the new poll support international economic sanctions against Iran to try to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons. There's less, though still sizable backing for military engagement, with 42 percent of Americans supporting the bombing of Iran's nuclear development sites and 33 percent advocating invading the country with U.S. ground forces (54 and 62 percent, respectively, oppose these actions). Three in 10 support direct financial incentives such as aid money or more trade; two-thirds of Americans oppose these

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Mon, 19 Oct 2009 12:00:01 -0500

New WaPo Va Gov poll: The Crosstabs

Thu, 08 Oct 2009 14:56:32 -0500

There is a brand new Washington Post poll on Virginia governor's race: see the poll story and the questionnaire. Below are some crosstabs on the head-to-head for the state's top job. Want others? Tell us in the comments section, and we'll do our best to provide. Deeds McDonnell All likely voters 44% 53% Men 38 59 Women 50 48 White 37 61 Non-white 75 20 Democrats 93 5 Republicans 4 95 Independents 38 59 Liberal Democrats 98 1 Mod/cons. Democrats 88 8 Democratic men 96 2 Democratic women 91 6 Republican men 4 94 Republican women 3 95 Independent men 30 66 Independent women 47 50 Northern Virginia 51 46 Inner suburbs 53 43 Rest of state 41 56 Southeast 47 50 East/Richmond 40 57 West/Shenandoah 38 61 Obama voter 84 13 McCain voter 7 91

Poll Check: A Shift on Abortion?

Thu, 01 Oct 2009 13:42:32 -0500

Both foes and supporters of legal abortion should sit back and take a broad view before overreacting to Thursday's release of new poll numbers showing a big shift in Americans' attitudes about abortion. The reason for skepticism (or at least restraint) is simple: other polls, including the Washington Post-ABC News poll, have not picked up such a basic reorientation on this divisive issue. With their new data, Pew shows a sizable drop from 2008 to 2009 in the percentage of Americans saying abortion should be "legal in all cases" or "legal in most cases," a move that coincides with the election of a pro-choice president. Earlier this year, Gallup caused a stir with a similar finding: that the number of "pro-life" Americans for the first time outnumbered those describing themselves as "pro-choice." (A tilt back the other way two months later picked up little notice.) Elsewhere the trend is decidedly

The Home Front on the Public Option

Wed, 30 Sep 2009 12:40:00 -0500

The 13 senators who yesterday voted against both government-sponsored health insurance plans represent populations whose support for health reform improves significantly when the plan does not include just such an option. Among those living in states represented by the 13* Senate Finance Committee members opposing both amendments, a majority in the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll gave a thumbs down to the health reform proposals being developed by the Congress and Obama administration. But when asked about a package that excluded a public option, the results flipped and most stood in favor of the reform effort. The opposite was true among those living in states represented by the 8** members of the committee who voted for both amendments, as support in those states held steady regardless of the inclusion of a public option. Just over half (51 percent) in states represented by a senator who opposed the two amendments said

Virginia's Regional Divide on the Issues

Tue, 29 Sep 2009 15:10:00 -0500

Northern Virginians express sharply diverging views from voters in the rest of the Commonwealth in the upcoming gubernatorial race, according to the latest Washington Post poll, with most in northern Virginia supporting Democratic nominee R. Creigh Deeds and most elsewhere in Republican Robert F. McDonnell's camp. A closer look at the crosstabs from the poll, conducted last week, reveals a rift that extends from the cultural issues raised by McDonnell's graduate school thesis to top-tier political touchstones like the economy and transportation. Overall, Northern Virginians (who make up 27 percent of the likely electorate in the poll) break 57 to 40 percent in Deeds's favor, while those in the rest of state split for McDonnell 55 to 44 percent. A majority of likely voters (54 percent) in Northern Virginia say Deeds's views on most issues are ideologically "about right," while more than a third (36 percent) describe him as "too