PostPartisan

Michael Steele's 'Heisman' moment

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 13:20:16 -0500

By Adam Ross Michael Steele’s “Heisman pose” on MSNBC’s Morning Joe this week was everything I doubt he wanted it to be: Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy Steele twice celebrated the GOP’s election success in Virginia and New Jersey by striking the pose -- an imitation of the bronze football player atop the Heisman trophy, which is awarded annually to the college game’s most outstanding player. But here’s what the goofy Republican National Committee chairman failed to recognize: Winning the Heisman trophy in no way guarantees a successful professional career. In fact, of the last 15 college athletes who won the award, only five -- Reggie Bush, Carson Palmer, Ricky Williams, Charles Woodson and Eddie George -- have seen much success in the NFL. Heisman winners often turn into complete busts in the next level of contest. Given Ruth Marcus’s column Wednesday and

Continue ignoring the punditry

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 12:09:03 -0500

Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz did a version of my look at the predictive force -- or lack thereof -- of the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections -- except his smartly took into account the general rule that the party of the incumbent president tends to lose seats in the midterms and featured snazzy statistics. In a column for Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball blog, Abramowitz looked at the number of House Republican seats won or lost, the number of Republican victories in the off-year elections, and the party of the incumbent president. His conclusion? “The results of the previous year's gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey did not predict the results of the midterm elections. Not only is the estimated coefficient for the Virginia/New Jersey election variable small and statistically insignificant, but it is in the wrong direction: the better Republicans did in Virginia and New

Since when are we on a first-name basis?

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 19:58:53 -0500

By Jo-Ann Armao Carly Fiorina’s campaign for a California Senate seat is less than 24 hours old, so I was wondering if I could make a suggestion to the candidate? Refrain from referring to yourself by your first name, and please, please ditch the “Carly For California” slogan. Admittedly, I have never managed a political campaign, so perhaps there are advantages in having an alliterative slogan. Maybe it helps to have voters thinking they are on a first-name basis with you. Indeed, my colleague Jonathan Capehart tells me that New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg uses the moniker “Mike” to make himself seem more of the people. (Here’s a better idea, “Mike”: don’t spend $90 million of your own money to get reelected). For my part, I want my elected officials to be serious -- people with real gravitas and strength. When I got the first e-mailed release from “Carly

Would you give up your golden parachute?

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 17:42:02 -0500

I don't think I'd have the stomach to turn down $20 million -- especially if I was legally entitled to it. But that's apparently what Nolan D. Archibald did. The long-time CEO of toolmaker Black & Decker declined the $20 million he is due as a result of a merger between his company and rival Stanley Works. Technically, the sum would have been considered a severance package (otherwise known as a golden parachute) since, as part of the deal, Archibald would relinquish his 24-year reign as head of Black & Decker. Even so, Archibald would become executive chairman of the merged company's board of directors and in that capacity stands to earn $1.5 million a year and would be in line for tens of millions of dollars in bonuses if the company hits financial targets. He is also entitled to keep his $35.5 million pension. And this doesn't include

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Thu, 05 Nov 2009 17:42:02 -0500

Public option: less than advertised

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 16:30:18 -0500

One of the fundamental arguments for having a public option as part of future health-insurance exchanges is that the increasing consolidation in insurance markets has reduced competition among insurers, thereby driving up premiums. Having a public option, the argument goes, would introduce needed competition into these markets -- keeping insurers "honest," as President Obama has put it. But has this trend toward consolidation actually resulted in higher premiums? The answer, according to a new working paper by researchers affiliated with the National Bureau of Economic Research, is yes, but not by very much. The real losers from more concentrated insurance markets seem to be doctors, whose earnings are driven down. Economists Leemore Dafny, Mark Duggan and Subramaniam Ramanarayanan examined a boat-load of data from 1998 to 2006: 10 million individuals enrolled in more than 800 employer-sponsored health plans in 139 markets across the country. First, the authors looked at

The turning point on Obama's popularity

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:31:40 -0500

Do Tuesday’s Republican victories in New Jersey and Virginia reflect rising voter disaffection toward President Obama? Experts will debate that endlessly over the coming days. Over at tnr.com, John Judis answers a tentative “yes,” at least with respect to Virginia. His evidence: “If you look at the graphs that pollster.com puts up that average out the polling findings, you find that towards the end of July, or in early August, the margin between Deeds and McDonnell jumped, and remained high for the rest of the election. At the very same time, Obama’s approval numbers in Virginia plummeted, and except for some outlier polls, have remained below fifty percent.” That got me thinking: what happened in late July to hurt Obama’s approval rating -- not just in Virginia, but nationally? Well, lots, of course. The health-care debate was heating up. Unemployment had reached well above 9 percent. And then there

How Obama is aiding Ahmadinejad

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 14:27:15 -0500

The New York Times reports that opposition protesters in Iran, in between beatings and tear-gassing from riot police and the regime’s hired thugs, have started a new chant: “Obama, Obama -- either you’re with them or you’re with us.” In case you were wondering what the answer might be, the statement yesterday from White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said it all. Gibbs declared that Obama administration officials were following reports of the unrest and “hope greatly that violence will not spread.” This was a great moment in the annals of diplo-speak. No mention of who might be committing the violence, or who might be its victims. Violence, it seems, has the capacity to spread without any human involvement.

Make me pay more

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 14:23:57 -0500

By Adam Ross I’m 28, healthy and willing to pay more so that all Americans can afford health care. Call me an ignorant idealist -- Michael Gerson does in this latest column, in which he argues that paying for health-care reform will require Congress to selfishly shift another burden from old to young. But my mother can’t afford health insurance. She is 59, has never had a serious illness, doesn’t smoke and exercises regularly. Blue Cross Blue Shield quoted her $500 a month for coverage, which is more than a retiree should have to pay. In the case of health care, it’s not a burden we’re shifting, it’s a responsibility. It’s my responsibility and one day it will be my children’s responsibility to pay disproportionately into the health-care system. Universal health coverage can’t be achieved solely on the backs of America’s young, but if we can do more, we should.

GOP not ascendant in Northern Virginia

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 13:01:37 -0500

By Lee Hockstader Let’s talk about Northern Virginia and the rest of Virginia in Tuesday’s statewide election results. The rest of Virginia went strongly for the Republican slate. NoVa didn’t. Gov.-Elect Bob McDonnell trounced Creigh Deeds statewide but eked out a win by less than a single percentage point in Northern Virginia. Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling and Attorney General-Elect Ken Cuccinelli (a Fairfax native!) rolled statewide; both got trounced in the north. Here’s a very rough, back-of-the envelope run-down of how the three races came out in Northern Virginia’s main jurisdictions -- and here I’m including Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William counties, plus the Fairfax and Falls Church cities. (Sorry, Stafford et. al. -- very busy day here.) Governor McDonnell: 259,000 Deeds: 255,000 Lt. Governor Bolling: 245,000 Wagner: 269,000 Attorney General Cuccinelli: 243,000 Shannon: 267,000

Maine: Rights shouldn't be subject to a popularity contest

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 16:12:02 -0500

By Jo-Ann Armao Maine’s vote to repeal the state’s law allowing gays and lesbians to marry is sure to revive the debate in D.C. about whether to submit this issue to voters. The District is on the verge of enacting legislation permitting same-sex marriages, but opponents think the voters should decide. They trumpet a supposed devotion to democracy but overlook what I think is the far more powerful argument of city officials who are resisting a referendum: that the inalienable rights of human beings cannot -- and should not -- be subject to a popularity contest. The Religious Freedom and Civil Marriage Equality Amendment Act of 2009 is now before the D.C. Council, and there are more than enough votes for its passage. The bill follows the success of Council Member David A. Catania (I-At Large) in winning passage of a law recognizing same-sex marriages performed in other jurisdictions. Efforts

The third-party effect in New Jersey

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 15:57:43 -0500

EAST BRUNSWICK, NJ-- Going into Tuesday’s elections, Democrats were far more confident about their chances in New Jersey than in Virginia. One reason political operatives at both the White House and the Democratic Governors Association thought that Gov. Jon Corzine might manage reelection was the presence of third-party candidate Chris Daggett. The thinking was that Daggett would split the anti-Corzine vote with Republican Chris Christie and let Corzine sneak in with substantially less than 50 percent of the vote. What went wrong with this theory? The Democrats’ expectation and hope was that Daggett could hold onto at least 10 percent of the vote. One Democratic strategist told me before the election that in that circumstance, Corzine would likely win with around 46 percent of the vote. In fact, Daggett ended up with only 5.8 percent of the vote, not enough to save Corzine. The latest returns show Christie winning

Fed-up nation

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 15:06:26 -0500

In the races for New York City mayor, New Jersey governor and New York's 23rd House district seat, the message from the electorate was clear: Talk to the hand. For different reasons, voters just didn't like being told what to do. Mayor, New York City When voters go to the polls, they're always thinking, "What have you done for me lately?" Mike Bloomberg (I) actually had good answers for the city he's run since 2002. (I was a policy adviser on his first campaign in 2001). But he squeaked to victory by a 5 percent margin over a candidate who ran a disorganized and error-prone campaign with what amounted to pocket change. Quite a fall from the 20-point blowout four years ago. That's because he really ticked off New Yorkers last year when he pushed through the repeal of the law that limited mayors to two consecutive terms in

Another casualty of the Virginia election

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 12:23:24 -0500

By Lee Hockstader Along with at least seven incumbents -- six of them Democrats -- there was another big casualty in Virginia’s House of Delegates from the election results Tuesday: any hope of bipartisan redistricting. Sure, Bob McDonnell, the governor-elect, supports appointing a bipartisan commission to redraw the state’s electoral map every 10 years in order to fashion a more genuinely competitive two-party system. So does Bob Bolling, the lieutenant governor who was reelected. But with ascendant Republicans controlling something near 60 of the 100 seats in the House of Delegates that takes office next January, the chances that they will cede control of the all-important map are nil. Too bad. It means that gerrymandering will continue to ensure that huge majorities of the state’s legislative races remain non-competitive. Over the last couple of election cycles (2007 and 2005), 85 to 90 percent of the commonwealth’s lawmakers had no serious

The Democrats get lashed

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 09:19:33 -0500

The most pathetic moment of Creigh Deeds’s sad campaign came toward the end, with a gauzy commercial invoking last year’s Obama campaign, featuring the tag line, “We can do it again.” Jon Corzine ran similar ads in the Obama idiom. But the mystical incantations of Barack Obama’s name did not perform miracles. It was like watching Democrats try to kindle a campfire in the pouring rain. In the end, they were reduced to mere nostalgia. It was not much of an electoral appeal: “We’ll always have Paris.” Today, national Democrats are trying their best to dismiss missing limbs as flesh wounds. It is their job. But they are in deep trouble if they believe their own spin. Compared to 12 months ago, 24 percent more Virginians voted Republican at the top of the ticket. Independents broke decisively against Democrats in Virginia and New Jersey. If this is not a

Bad night for billionaires

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 00:20:34 -0500

Republicans can claim shouting rights in Virginia and New Jersey, and the Democrats have picked up that furiously contested House seat in northern New York state (which gives the Democrats 49 House members and the Republicans two in America’s northeast corner -- New England and New York). But there can be no joy on Wall Street. The two aging financial whiz kids on tonight’s ballots -- former Goldman Sachs CEO Jon Corzine and Bloomberg’s Michael Bloomberg -- seriously underperformed. Corzine was unseated in his bid for re-election as New Jersey’s governor by Republican Chris Christie. Across the river in New York, Bloomberg eked out a much- closer-than-anyone-expected 51 percent to 46 percent victory over city Comptroller William Thompson, whom he outspent by no less than 14-to-1, to win a third term as mayor. Both Corzine and Bloomberg have always been self-funding candidates, with Corzine setting records for most money